What to trade around the JP Consumer Confidence news event

Based on the last 12 Consumer Confidence events in JP, we expect USDCHF to trend up later today. Based on these past events there is a 80.0% of this.
We expect USDCHF to trend up 2 hours following the event release at 09 May 05:00 if the released value is < 41. A price movement of 5 pips is expected.Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

08 Apr 05:00
 
01 Mar 05:00
 
30 Jan 05:00
 
30 Nov 05:00
 
29 Aug 05:00
 
31 Jul 05:00
 
29 Jun 05:00
 
30 May 05:00
 

* All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”)

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