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We expect EURUSD to trend downwards today with a 81.82% chance.

We expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past United Kingdom Claimant Count Change news events there is a 81.82% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is > 22.8K. A price movement of 12 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

11 Jun 08:30
14 May 08:30
16 Apr 08:30
19 Feb 09:30
22 Jan 09:30
11 Dec 09:30
16 Oct 08:30
14 Aug 08:30
17 Jul 08:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect a $770 movement on GBPUSD within 48 hours following the event release at 16 Jul 09:00.

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