We expect EURUSD to trend downwards today.

Based on the last 12 Fed Interest Rate Decision events in United States, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 31 Jul 18:00 if the released value is = 2.25%. A price movement of 26 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

19 Jun 18:00
01 May 18:00
19 Dec 19:00
08 Nov 19:00
26 Sep 18:00
01 Aug 18:00
02 May 18:00
31 Jan 19:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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