We expect a 812 pip movement on ES within 2 hours following the event release.

Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in Japan, we expect a 812 pip movement on ES within 2 hours following the event release at 18 Jun 23:30 UTC. We expect ES to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 18 Jun 23:30 UTC if the released value is = 0.1%

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

20 Feb 23:30
22 Aug 23:30
18 Jul 23:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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