Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in Japan, we expect a 812 pip movement on ES within 2 hours following the event release at 18 Jun 23:30 UTC. We expect ES to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 18 Jun 23:30 UTC if the released value is = 0.1%
Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion
|20 Feb 23:30|
|22 Aug 23:30|
|18 Jul 23:30|
All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).