There is a 80% chance of BO trending downwards

Based on past Australia Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 80% chance of BO trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > 16.3%. A price movement of 14 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

04 Jun 01:30
06 May 01:30
03 Apr 00:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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