There is a 70% chance of ES trending upwards

Based on past United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final news events there is a 70% chance of ES trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is = -2%. A price movement of 2,725 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

30 Sep 08:30
28 Jun 08:30
29 Mar 09:30
28 Sep 08:30
29 Mar 08:30
29 Sep 08:30
30 Jun 08:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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